A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
